With North Korea's missile tests hitting a record this year, South Korea is looking to US support for the work. South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol's administration has sought to form a united front with the US against its hostile neighbor, including expanding the presence of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system on South Korean soil.
Considers the anti-missile system , first installed in 2017, as an integral part of the country's strong defensive position to the north. However, the outcome of the US midterm elections later this month could affect Washington's involvement in the region. A Republican victory would likely see a more isolationist American approach to foreign policy as a limiting factor in the Biden administration and its actions in South Korea.
Furthermore, not all South Koreans welcome US involvement in security matters on the Korean peninsula for fear of becoming a target of geopolitical crossfire. South Korea's government recently said it was considering expanding the deployment of the US missile defense system near Soseong-ri, a sleepy farming town in the south of the country, and locals have since protested the move. to cease operations. Similar demonstrations where locals chanted slogans like "This is our country. We can't let the US take it away from us” chanting took place back in September 2016 when a golf course in Soseong-ri was the site of THAAD.
The protests only subsided after the government promised not to expand the site. Locals said they oppose the missile defense system because they believe it would make their village a prime target for North Korea if attacked, along with possible retaliation from neighboring countries like China. “This directly threatens peace on the Korean Peninsula. We're just jumping into the hegemony of the US and China. It's called a defense system, but the stronger the defense system, the stronger China and Russia build offensive weapons to break through,” said Mr. Lee Jong-hee, co-chairman of the Seongju Struggle Committee for THAAD Withdrawal.
"If war breaks out, the first target in South Korea will be the THAAD base here. US MID-TERM CONTESTS As the US mid-term elections loom, the Biden administration will want to take a strong stance to go into the race. “Of course, US public opinion will favor stronger policies toward North Korea. And finally, around the midterm elections, it's entirely possible that the Biden administration will make stronger anti-North Korea comments and take a tougher stance," said Hong Min, research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification.
He added that while the door for diplomatic dialogue remains open for now, it may soon be replaced by a much tougher stance. The outcome of the election will also have implications for US policy on the Korean Peninsula. Scott A. Snyder, senior fellow in Korean studies and director of the US-Korea policy program at the Council on Foreign Relations, said a strong Republican showing would become a limiting factor for a Biden administration as they tend to take more isolationist approach to foreign policy. However, Snyder still sees broader geopolitical issues, along with growing perceptions of threats in Washington, as more important factors shaping the US response to North Korea beyond the election outcome.
THE NORTH KOREA FACTOR
Pyongyang has conducted a series of missile tests in recent months. Since Kim Jong Un came to power, North Korea has seen the most missile launches this year, more than the previous three years combined. Snyder said North Korea is pursuing its goals of military modernization and missile development, which he outlined at his party's congress in January last year. However, these violate what US missile launches have allowed, he said. He added, "A lot of these short-range tests have really focused on South Korea, and North Korea has mentioned the idea of using a tactical nuclear weapon for battlefield use."
I think this is directly related to the growing tensions and almost preferential competition between the two Koreas. North Korea is also using the US focus on China and Russia to continue its missile development program, Mr. Snyder noted.” The problem is that despite the Biden administration's persistence and reach of dialogue, the North Koreans have rejected all of these efforts. And I think that's mainly because they don't like the agenda," he said. He explained that the Biden government wanted to talk about denuclearization, but North Koreans wanted to participate in discussions on the basis that North Korea was a legitimate and responsible nuclear state.
Mr Snyder said North Korea is likely to look to the 2024 US presidential election rather than the upcoming midterms to restore ties. Leader Kim Jong Un, maybe even President Trump, could come back and take the relationship in a different direction, he said.
CNA